Oscars Is On The Way!
Jan. 6th, 2011 02:59 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
kamreadsandrecsI've just found out that this year's Oscars are to be held on the 27th of February (which means I get to watch them on the 28th, since I live in the Philippines and we're a day ahead of the States), and although there's no nominee list just yet (damn it), I'm definitely looking forward to this year's possible crop of nominees.
However, I've got my own speculations regarding who's going to get a nomination. I can speculate on the winners later, but at this stage, I'm more interested in finding out who's going to get on the list, as opposed to who's going to win.
Now, generally speaking, the list of nominees for the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards are viewed as a good way of judging who's going to get nominated for the Oscars, and since so far, only the Golden Globes has a nominee list out, I'm going to use that as a basis for speculation regarding which movies/actors/actresses will get nominated for the Oscars.
Inception, Dir. Christopher Nolan - Well, duh. I think everyone saw this coming the moment Inception opened to wide acclaim in theaters all over the world. Its unique concept and storyline, which have been described as The Matrix for the 21st century, have practically ensured its spot on the nominee list. Not only that, but Nolan's stellar direction (evidenced by his work not only on Inception but also in The Dark Knight) will almost surely give him a Best Director nod for his work. If he gets a nod for Best Original Screenplay I wouldn't be too surprised, either.
The Golden Globes nominee lists for their equivalent of the Oscar acting awards didn't include any of the actors from Inception, but this doesn't surprise me much. It's not like The Dark Knight, or even Inglourious Basterds, wherein one actor (albeit in supporting roles) stood head and shoulders above their costars. And although I may have mentioned in an earlier post that I want Ken Watanabe to get nominated (and win) for Best Supporting Actor, I highly doubt now that that's going to happen. Unless, of course, the Academy chooses to prove me wrong.
Black Swan, Dir. Darren Aronofsky - Although I haven't seen Black Swan yet (because of the MMFF, damn it), I have indeed seen the trailer for this one, and have also seen Aronofsky's last production, The Wrestler. I've begun to associate Aronofsky with character-driven stories, or at least character-centered ones, and judging from the trailers alone Black Swan is just another such story. It's the kind of story that not only gets nominated for Best Picture, but nets its leads acting nominations too.
That has become the case with Natalie Portman, whose performance all but guarantees her a spot on the Best Actress nominee list, and also makes her one of the top contenders for Best Actress. Costar Mila Kunis was also nominated at the Golden Globes for Best Supporting, but until I see the movie I cannot say for sure whether she deserves this or not. Word on the street (as it were) says that she does, but again, I can't say for myself if she really does deserve it.
And since I haven't seen the movie yet, I can safely say that this is likely going to get a nod for Best Picture, maybe Best Director too. Still, the main strength of Black Swan is its acting, and I'm fairly sure that's where it's going to get the wins.
The Social Network, Dir. David Fincher - I think part of the reason why The Social Network is such a hit is because it speaks so immediately to the viewers. We all use, or are familiar with, Facebook, and the effects of other such social networking sites. This movie is so incredibly timely for us that it's almost natural that it should get nominated for an Oscar.
However, I have some qualms about it, mostly because I don't know precisely what to feel about it. Sure, it's interesting in the sense that it's timely and speaks to us in ways that the other possible nominees don't, but I'm not entirely sure about it just yet. The directing is good, and Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield both did pretty good work in this one, and the scriptwriting (by Aaron Sorkin) is relatively decent. But somehow, it just doesn't strike me as much as the other potential nominees do. Maybe it's just a little too timely for my taste.
To be sure, this is likely to get nominated for quite a few things, but do I want it to win? I don't know. I might have to watch it a second time just to confirm how I feel about it.
The King's Speech, Dir. Tom Hooper - Now this? This one was just beautiful. And I don't mean this in a visual way, though to be sure Tom Hooper is great at creating beautiful films. The entire thing, taken as a whole, is beautiful in a quiet, steadfast sort of way. While I don't really mind if this movie doesn't get nominated for Best Picture or Best Director, I will be displeased if it doesn't get nominated for Best Original Screenplay. David Seidler did such lovely work for this movie, and it'd be a waste if he wasn't at least nominated for his efforts.
Colin Firth and Helena Bonham-Carter were pretty good in their roles (Firth more than Bonham-Carter, I'm sorry to say), but they were backed up by what I think is a pretty awesome script. And since my primary tenet is that a script is 50% of a movie's quality, I feel like everyone else didn't have to work as hard to do their roles only because the script was great.
127 Hours, Dir. Danny Boyle - I'm not entirely sure if this will actually get nominated, but if it does, I really wouldn't mind. Danny Boyle is a director whose works I've always looked forward to since I saw Trainspotting, and if he gets another nomination for this one, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised.
But what I think is the true clincher here is James Franco's acting. How does one convey what he has conveyed in this movie? Where does he get it? I firmly believe he's going to get a Best Actor nod for this one, and I also believe that, despite Colin Firth's wonderful performance in The King's Speech, Franco's pretty much on equal footing with him after this one.
The Kids Are All Right, Dir. Lisa Chodolenko - Just like The King's Speech, this movie is absolutely beautiful, and for reasons quite distinct from the aforementioned movie. The concept is both timely and controversial, and Chodolenko portrays relationships with a delicacy and finesse that I appreciate a great deal.
Again, if this one does not get nominated for Best Original Screenplay, I will be quite upset, because the script (by Chodolenko and Stuart Blumberg) is a beautiful, beautiful one. And while I also suspect that Annette Bening and Julianne Moore are going to get nominated as well, I think part of the reason why they are going to get nominated is because of the beauty of the script itself.
Oh, and I would also like it if Chodolenko got nominated for Best Director. If she won, it would be a back-to-back triumph for women directors, especially since Kathryn Bigelow won last year for The Hurt Locker. It'd be a very nice thing to see.
While Oscars might be a ways away, that doesn't mean I cannot speculate on it as early as now. As soon as an official list comes out (and I watch a few more films) I'll be able to give a better prediction.
However, I've got my own speculations regarding who's going to get a nomination. I can speculate on the winners later, but at this stage, I'm more interested in finding out who's going to get on the list, as opposed to who's going to win.
Now, generally speaking, the list of nominees for the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards are viewed as a good way of judging who's going to get nominated for the Oscars, and since so far, only the Golden Globes has a nominee list out, I'm going to use that as a basis for speculation regarding which movies/actors/actresses will get nominated for the Oscars.
Inception, Dir. Christopher Nolan - Well, duh. I think everyone saw this coming the moment Inception opened to wide acclaim in theaters all over the world. Its unique concept and storyline, which have been described as The Matrix for the 21st century, have practically ensured its spot on the nominee list. Not only that, but Nolan's stellar direction (evidenced by his work not only on Inception but also in The Dark Knight) will almost surely give him a Best Director nod for his work. If he gets a nod for Best Original Screenplay I wouldn't be too surprised, either.
The Golden Globes nominee lists for their equivalent of the Oscar acting awards didn't include any of the actors from Inception, but this doesn't surprise me much. It's not like The Dark Knight, or even Inglourious Basterds, wherein one actor (albeit in supporting roles) stood head and shoulders above their costars. And although I may have mentioned in an earlier post that I want Ken Watanabe to get nominated (and win) for Best Supporting Actor, I highly doubt now that that's going to happen. Unless, of course, the Academy chooses to prove me wrong.
Black Swan, Dir. Darren Aronofsky - Although I haven't seen Black Swan yet (because of the MMFF, damn it), I have indeed seen the trailer for this one, and have also seen Aronofsky's last production, The Wrestler. I've begun to associate Aronofsky with character-driven stories, or at least character-centered ones, and judging from the trailers alone Black Swan is just another such story. It's the kind of story that not only gets nominated for Best Picture, but nets its leads acting nominations too.
That has become the case with Natalie Portman, whose performance all but guarantees her a spot on the Best Actress nominee list, and also makes her one of the top contenders for Best Actress. Costar Mila Kunis was also nominated at the Golden Globes for Best Supporting, but until I see the movie I cannot say for sure whether she deserves this or not. Word on the street (as it were) says that she does, but again, I can't say for myself if she really does deserve it.
And since I haven't seen the movie yet, I can safely say that this is likely going to get a nod for Best Picture, maybe Best Director too. Still, the main strength of Black Swan is its acting, and I'm fairly sure that's where it's going to get the wins.
The Social Network, Dir. David Fincher - I think part of the reason why The Social Network is such a hit is because it speaks so immediately to the viewers. We all use, or are familiar with, Facebook, and the effects of other such social networking sites. This movie is so incredibly timely for us that it's almost natural that it should get nominated for an Oscar.
However, I have some qualms about it, mostly because I don't know precisely what to feel about it. Sure, it's interesting in the sense that it's timely and speaks to us in ways that the other possible nominees don't, but I'm not entirely sure about it just yet. The directing is good, and Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield both did pretty good work in this one, and the scriptwriting (by Aaron Sorkin) is relatively decent. But somehow, it just doesn't strike me as much as the other potential nominees do. Maybe it's just a little too timely for my taste.
To be sure, this is likely to get nominated for quite a few things, but do I want it to win? I don't know. I might have to watch it a second time just to confirm how I feel about it.
The King's Speech, Dir. Tom Hooper - Now this? This one was just beautiful. And I don't mean this in a visual way, though to be sure Tom Hooper is great at creating beautiful films. The entire thing, taken as a whole, is beautiful in a quiet, steadfast sort of way. While I don't really mind if this movie doesn't get nominated for Best Picture or Best Director, I will be displeased if it doesn't get nominated for Best Original Screenplay. David Seidler did such lovely work for this movie, and it'd be a waste if he wasn't at least nominated for his efforts.
Colin Firth and Helena Bonham-Carter were pretty good in their roles (Firth more than Bonham-Carter, I'm sorry to say), but they were backed up by what I think is a pretty awesome script. And since my primary tenet is that a script is 50% of a movie's quality, I feel like everyone else didn't have to work as hard to do their roles only because the script was great.
127 Hours, Dir. Danny Boyle - I'm not entirely sure if this will actually get nominated, but if it does, I really wouldn't mind. Danny Boyle is a director whose works I've always looked forward to since I saw Trainspotting, and if he gets another nomination for this one, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised.
But what I think is the true clincher here is James Franco's acting. How does one convey what he has conveyed in this movie? Where does he get it? I firmly believe he's going to get a Best Actor nod for this one, and I also believe that, despite Colin Firth's wonderful performance in The King's Speech, Franco's pretty much on equal footing with him after this one.
The Kids Are All Right, Dir. Lisa Chodolenko - Just like The King's Speech, this movie is absolutely beautiful, and for reasons quite distinct from the aforementioned movie. The concept is both timely and controversial, and Chodolenko portrays relationships with a delicacy and finesse that I appreciate a great deal.
Again, if this one does not get nominated for Best Original Screenplay, I will be quite upset, because the script (by Chodolenko and Stuart Blumberg) is a beautiful, beautiful one. And while I also suspect that Annette Bening and Julianne Moore are going to get nominated as well, I think part of the reason why they are going to get nominated is because of the beauty of the script itself.
Oh, and I would also like it if Chodolenko got nominated for Best Director. If she won, it would be a back-to-back triumph for women directors, especially since Kathryn Bigelow won last year for The Hurt Locker. It'd be a very nice thing to see.
While Oscars might be a ways away, that doesn't mean I cannot speculate on it as early as now. As soon as an official list comes out (and I watch a few more films) I'll be able to give a better prediction.
